Market Outlook #250 (18th December 2023)

Hey, and welcome to the 250th instalment of my Market Outlook.

On this week’s submit, I can be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Casper Community, TriasLab, Morpheus Community and Cellframe. I may even be offering a year-end replace to Altcoin Market Cap.

That is the final Outlook for 2023. Have an excellent Christmas and a Comfortable New 12 months and I’ll see you in 2024.

Bitcoin:

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $40,971

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD, from the weekly timeframe we are able to see that value spent final week contained in the vary of the earlier week, printing an inside week. Given this formation, the very first thing to contemplate is the opportunity of inside week failure, which might type if we take out both final week’s low or its excessive after which shut again inside that weekly vary. On condition that we offered off from final week’s open into the shut again under $42k, and thus our proximity to the weekly vary low (and the broader market outlook), I lean in direction of the probability of us taking out the weekly low at $40.3k earlier than closing again above it. In that situation, we’d anticipate final week’s excessive to get taken out out and value to seemingly proceed to squeeze past $45k, with $48.2k as main resistance past that. If, nonetheless, value closes the week under $40.3k, this situation is invalidated and I’d anticipate a deeper pullback from there in direction of $38k as untested prior resistance.

Dropping into the each day, we are able to see that each day construction is now bearish, given the break and shut under the $43k swing-low and subsequent lower-high; nonetheless, that wasn’t a lot of a swing level, so while that is technically bearish construction I’m not notably satisfied by it as of but. If we had been to now shut the each day by way of $40k, that appears to be like rather more convincing for short-term bearishness, with first targets of a trendline retest and the $38k prior resistance, with $33k as the most important degree under that if we’re to take out all of these untapped lows alongside the trendline earlier than bottoming out. Nonetheless, if we are able to proceed to carry right here above $40k (or deviate this low and shut again above it), I’d search for a push again above $43k earlier than favouring additional upside; between these ranges I don’t have a lot of a bias. Shut again above $43k and I do suppose we proceed to push increased into $48k…

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

ETH/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $2132 (0.05203 BTC)

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that value retraced all the positive aspects of the prior weekly enlargement final week, promoting off from the open again into reclaimed help at $2172. Value depraved under the prior weekly low into $2137, which held as help, with the pair closing again above $2172. Actually, that is very a lot giving blended alerts: we’ve got erasure of the earlier week’s positive aspects following enlargement past yearly highs, however we’ve got a sweep of the weekly low into main help too. Principally, chop continues. What I’m taking a look at right here is the place we are able to proceed to carry above $2172 this week; shut above it after sweeping final week’s low and I feel we’ve got the makings of a backside earlier than one other run at $2425. If, nonetheless, we shut the week under $2137, I feel we’re more likely to see $1850 taken out earlier than a backside is discovered. Wanting on the each day, we are able to see how each day construction appears to be like set to show bearish right here if we do break and shut under $2137, and if that’s confirmed we are able to anticipate $2036 to be examined later this week, however with rather more help down round $1850. Nonetheless, as talked about earlier, sweep this space of prior resistance after which climb again above $2172 later this week and I feel shorts get trapped and we squeeze again in direction of yearly highs.

Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that value continues to cut round between help at 0.051 and resistance round 0.055. There may be little else to be added right here given the narrative has been the identical inside this vary for weeks now. After we break and shut both facet of the vary, I wouldn’t be fast to fade it.

Casper Community:

CSPR/USD

Each day:

CSPR/BTC

Each day:

Value: $0.038 (92 satoshis)

Ideas: On condition that each pairs look nearly an identical right here for CSPR, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair.

Taking a look at CSPR/USD, we are able to see that it has been range-bound for 585 days at this level, with a lot of that being spent above $0.025 and under $0.055, aside from a quick fakeout past that vary resistance earlier this 12 months. We’ve bullish construction right here on the each day however have offered off from prior help up close to the prime quality, with value now set to retest the 200dMA at $0.037 as help. So long as we now maintain above reclaimed help at $0.035 and the 200dMA, forming a higher-low, I’d anticipate to see one other push on the vary resistance from right here up close to $0.055. If it is a venture you have an interest in (reader request, FYI), I’d contemplate this pretty much as good an entry as any provided that your invalidation right here could possibly be as tight at $0.031; closing under that might invalidate all of this latest construction and we’d seemingly return in direction of the underside of the vary from there. Wanting forward, the disbelief part is clear – shut above $0.073 and I feel this begins its bull cycle, with $0.22 as main resistance past that.

TriasLab:

TRIAS/USD

Each day:

TRIAS/BTC

Each day:

Value: $5.57 (13,579 satoshis)

Ideas: Once more, given how related these pairs look right here, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair, because the construction can be just a little cleaner.

Taking a look at TRIAS/USD, we are able to see that value was in an extended interval of enlargement off the underside earlier than spending a lot of 2023 in consolidation under $4.15, faking out above that degree as soon as. This lengthy consolidation vary led to cost winding tighter with the 360dMA appearing as help and value then reclaiming the 200dMA as help in October. Since, the pair has rallied in direction of $4.15, consolidated between the 200dMA and that degree and most just lately damaged out sharply past that resistance, breaking recent yearly highs by way of $5. Given this market construction, I’d completely not be fading this, as a substitute contemplating this seemingly the start of the following main leg increased for TRIAS. If we are able to now maintain above $4.15, I’d anticipate $6.40 to offer approach and value to make its approach in direction of trendline resistance and reclaimed resistance up close to $12 earlier than the following native prime kinds.

Morpheus Community:

MNW/USD

Weekly:

Each day:

MNW/BTC

Weekly:

Each day:

Value: $1.08 (2659 satoshis)

Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MNW/USD on the weekly, we are able to see that value continues to be capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, having now rejected under the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market at prior help ~$1.46. We’re presently discovering help above $0.94, as has been the case since late final 12 months, however to be trustworthy this isn’t a very engaging long-term chart at current. We’ve value discovering help above the 200wMA in Nov final 12 months, then rallying to recent yearly highs into $2.45, confirming a weekly uptrend, however then rejecting, erasing the positive aspects again into the 200wMA after which rallying rather more weakly off that very same help into the trendline. If that $0.94 help goes, this pair returns to bearish construction on the weekly, in order that’s presently your most essential degree. Till it will get a weekly shut by way of that trendline and again above $1.50, I wouldn’t have an interest on this to be trustworthy – a lot better alternatives available in the market.

Taking a look at MNW/BTC, we are able to see that the pair may be very a lot nonetheless in a bear cycle at current, with recent lows on the newest break and shut under 3264 satoshis. Value is now sat in no man’s land, with main help under close to 1400 satoshis, and resistance overhead at that 3264 degree. There may be additionally no signal simply but of pattern exhaustion on the weekly timeframe. I really feel like given how just lately this rallied into all-time highs (Nov 2022), it will likely be some time but earlier than this one absolutely bottoms out; while most of its value capitulation seems to have occurred, we could must see a interval of flat consolidation earlier than one other cycle can start for MNW.

Cellframe:

CELL/USD

Each day:

CELL/BTC

Each day:

Value: $0.19 (475 satoshis)

Ideas: Once more, very similar to a few different tokens on this submit, CELL’s pairs look very related right here and I’m specializing in the Greenback pair, as that can be what I’m basing my long-term place on.

So, taking a look at CELL/USD, we are able to see that value has retraced following the push above $0.24 into $0.29, returning to reclaimed help above $0.185 and the 200dMA. We stay capped by the long-term trendline resistance, however following the multi-year downtrend we’ve got been consolidating above all-time lows and under $0.37 since mid-2022. I’m very a lot nonetheless in my spot place right here and if I used to be not absolutely allotted I’d be shopping for some inside this vary. Invalidation could be recent all-time lows, the place I’d reduce and look forward to a reclaim or a brand new vary formation. However given the broader market situations I feel we usually tend to proceed chopping round right here after which begin reversing sharply when ETH begins outperforming. Above $0.37 the primary bull cycle begins…

Altcoin Market Cap:

ALT/USD

Weekly:

ALT/BTC

Weekly:

Market Cap: $441.2bn

Ideas: Starting with ALT/USD, we are able to see that the altcoin market has emerged lastly after over 500 days of being range-bound, just lately rallying again by way of the 200wMA, consolidating above it as help after which pushing by way of multi-year resistance at $413bn. We’ve pushed into the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market right here at $480bn and rejected, now consolidating throughout the prior weekly vary. I’d anticipate to see additional consolidation right here after the multi-week rally, however there may be nothing bearish about this on the upper timeframes. So long as we are able to now maintain above that $400bn space, I’d anticipate the following squeeze to open up a much wider vary, the place issues will get very attention-grabbing: above $480bn, there isn’t any resistance for alts again into the 38.2% fib and prior help close to $590bn – over 25% increased from right here. That’s the place I’d anticipate extra resistance to be discovered for alts and maybe a broader market correction. Disbelief is changing into hope.

Taking a look at ALT/BTC, we are able to see that regardless of some positive aspects in Greenback values of alts – and large positive aspects on-chain in non-ETH ecosystems – we’ve got largely been trending decrease towards BTC for over a 12 months. Most just lately, alts depraved under help at 10.5mn into 9.6mn and bounced, with pattern exhaustion now showing on this timeframe. We additionally noticed the market shut above trendline resistance, marginally – that is all indicative of a interval of altcoin outperformance being imminent, which is confluent with the Greenback valuation of the altcoin market. If we are able to reclaim 11.4mn as help right here, I feel that would be the catalyst for alts outperforming BTC into the 200wMA and prior multi-year vary help up close to 13.3mn BTC.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook – and the ultimate one among 2023!

I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!

As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.